A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.
Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.
China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.
Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.

What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?

These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality.

Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.

As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action.

Warning: All quotes and citations in Chapters 1-7 dated after Fall 2008 are fabrications. See page 29 for details. Therefore it is extremely dangerous to "quote" this book out of context.

Contents

“

Maps Introduction: A Glimpse of the Future  Pearl Harbor  The Dawn of Blitzkrieg  Millennium Challenge  Yoda  Scenarios: Preparing for an Uncertain Future  Leaving the Comfort Zone  Don't Try to Predict the Future-You Can't  Scenarios and Strategy  Why Do We Have A Hard Time Changing Our Vision?  Thinking About the Next War  "The Streetfighter State"  Insights from "The Streetfighter State" 1 The Collapse of Pakistan  Assassination  "The Century's Greatest Crisis"  The Slow Disintegration of Pakistan  The Rise of Radical Islamism: The Madrassas  The Ungoverned Areas and the Radical Islamist Movement  Run-Up to the Current Crisis  What Is to Be Done? 2 War Comes to America  Ten Determined Men  Remember the Alamo?  No Fingerprints?  The Red Connection  The Spartacus Effect  "My Fellow Americans"  "Rag-Heads 60,000; U.S. 0" 3 Pandemic  South of the Border, Down Mexico Way...  The Pandemic "Plague"  A Global Economy In Crisis  An Imposing Enemy  "Plague" In the Information Age  Chaos on America's Doorstep  Go North, Young Man...  The Shadow of Death  How Did It Happen?  The World's Weak Defenses  Globalization: The Great Enabler?  Waging War on Pandemic Influenza  Mexican Exodus  "Moonshine"  The Coming Wave 4 Armageddon: The Assault on Israel  An Echo from the Past  The Second Lebanon War  Iraq and the Sunni Arab States  Iran Ascendant  The Mullahs' Descent  The Growing Crisis  The 28 Mordad  The Sinking of the Moshe Dayan  "Greater Than Entebbe"  Sliding Toward Armageddon  An Iranian "Guarantee"?  The View from Washington  The Last Hours of Peace? 5 China's "Assassin's Mace"  The Last Days of Peace?  Thinking About the Day After Tomorrow  Dragon or Panda?  The Sputtering Engine of Growth  Is Demography Destiny?  The Little Violent Emperors  Water  The Long Path to War  China's Military Transformation: The Assassin's Mace  China's Threat to the Global Commons  Chinese Challenge to U.S. Command of the Sea and Undersea  Chinese Challenge to U.S. Access to Space  Chinese Threats to Cyberspace  China's Strategic Depth  China's Crisis  Caught Napping  We Seek No Wider Conflict 6 Just Not-on-Time: The War on the Global Economy  Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Shipping Network  Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Energy Trade  The Forces of Disorder  "The Platforms Are Burning"  "The Mother of All Oil Fires"  The Cyberblockade  Baby Hiroshima  Blue Christmas 7 Who Lost Iraq?  The "Blame Game"  Not So Fast  Stagflation and Declining U.S. Support  Iraq's Factions Reemerge  The Short Recessional  The Stand at Najaf  The Long Road Home  The Shi'a Surge  The Turks Make Their Move  Exit the Advisers  The War Spreads  On the Outside Looking In Conclusion: Lighting the Path Ahead  So What?  "Wasting Assets"  What Is Strategy?  Barriers to Good Strategy  What Is to Be Done?  Creating New Paths to the Future  Concepts of Operations  Willingness to Designate "Winners" and "Losers"  A Sense of Urgency  Sustained Effort  Emphasis on the Operational Level of War  The Customer  Training Facilities  Resources  Input in Developing Future Requirements  Conclusion Acknowledgments Index

”

Tags: qWorldPolitics, qMilitaryPolicy, qStrategy, qChina, qForecasting

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